COVID-19 Research Survey

COVID-19 RESEARCH SURVEY

Welcome! Thank you for participating in this COVID-19 research survey!

As you may know, COVID-19 has been widespread across the world, including the United States. As a team of researchers for the Stuyvesant Teens for Public Health Club, we are conducting a survey to create a crowd-sourced prediction of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The graphs below show your predictions as well as actual data from the states Oklahoma, Missouri, and Tennessee as of July 29th 2020. When the study is completed, we can send an email comparing your predictions to actual data.

Instructions: Please read the following instructions below to fill out this research survey.

There are 4 values below that you can input! Once you input the values you want, press the enter button to generate the graph based on your inputs. Please generate graphs until you feel comfortable with your inputs. No additional reading or prior knowledge is needed.

Please type the 4 values from the multiple choice in the Google Form at the bottom of the page. Then press “Next”.

After you press next, a short survey should appear. Please fill out all the questions marked with a red star (*); the rest are optional!

Note: The purpose of this survey is for the purposes of the project only. The contact details are only if you would like to see your survey results! The model assumes people are able to spread COVID-19 for 14 days. The model also ensures COVID-19 cases do not exceed the combined population of the following three states: Oklahoma, Missouri, and Tennessee. We estimated the combined population to be currently 16,923,573.

Make your best prediction on how COVID develops:

Mortality Rate: the rate in which the infected dies. The higher the rate, the greater the number of deaths.

0.50% of infected people die

0.75% of infected people die

1.00% of infected people die

1.25% of infected people die

1.50% of infected people die

1.75% of infected people die

2.00% of infected people die

2.25% of infected people die

Rate of Infection: the rate in which COVID-19 spreads. The higher the rate, the more COVID-19 cases in the least amount of time. In the base case, 2.5 people are infected, excluding other effects, by 1 infected person in 14 days.

55% of base case, 1.375 infected

70% of base case, 1.75 infected

85% of base case, 2.125 infected

100% of base case, 2.5 infected

115% of base case, 2.875 infected

130% of base case, 3.25 infected

145% of base case, 3.625 infected

Social Distancing Suppression: the effect of people practicing socially distancing methods (e.g., staying 6 feet from one another or wearing masks). For example a 50% factor means an infection that normally infects 2 new patients for every sick person would infect only 1 new patient.

10% of potential cases

20% of potential cases

30% of potential cases

40% of potential cases

50% of potential cases

60% of potential cases

70% of potential cases

80% of potential cases

90% of potential cases

Suppression by Other Factors: the rate in which people suppress spreading COVID-19 (e.g. through improving medicine, vaccinations, and other changes). This variable reduces the infection rate.

0.00% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

0.25% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

0.50% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

0.75% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

1.00% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

1.25% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

1.50% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

1.75% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors

2.00% daily reduction in infectiousness from other factors